Kotzebue, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

461
FXAK69 PAFG 242348
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
348 PM AKDT Thu Apr 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A tightening pressure gradient along the Arctic Coast
will bring east winds gusting to 40 mph from Friday through the
weekend along with blowing snow to the area. Blizzard conditions
are not expected. A warm front will move south to north along the
West Coast and in the Western Interior west of McGrath to Galena
to Ambler Friday through Sunday bringing mixed precipitation. The
interior will see mainly dry conditions with a few showers mainly
east of Delta Junction on Friday, then warming temperatures with
southerly gap winds through Alaska Range passes on Saturday and
Sunday.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

-Temperatures remain steady through the end of the week with highs
 in the 40s to near 50 and lows dipping down below freezing in
 most places. Temperatures warm modestly over the weekend.

-Isolated rain showers possible in the afternoons. Showers will
 fall as snow in elevated terrain with low to no accumulations.
 Showers become less numerous Saturday as southerly Chinook flow
 kicks in.

-Southerly gap winds through Alaska Range passes are likely
 Saturday and Sunday. Gusts will likely be 30 to 40 mph.

West Coast and Western Interior...

-A warm front will bring a mix of rain and snow from the Yukon
 Delta north to Kotzebue and west of a line from McGrath to Galena
 to Ambler. Snow accumulations as well as impacts are expected to
 be minimal.

-Windy conditions with blowing snow continue at Gambell through
 Saturday.

-High temperatures will be mainly in the 30s, except in the 20s
 north of the Seward Peninsula and on St. Lawrence Island on
 Friday.

North Slope and Brooks Range..

-Northeasterly winds 15 to 20 mph across the Arctic Coast today
 will increase to 20 to 25 mph Friday with gusts 40 to 45 mph by
 Friday afternoon. These decrease slightly to gusts up to 35 mph
 on Saturday through Sunday. Blowing snow is likely, but blizzard
 conditions are not anticipated at this time.

-Lows will be mainly in the single digits with highs in the teens
 along the coast and in the 20s in the Brooks Range.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...A vertically stacked low in
the Gulf of Alaska has moved east to near Yakutat. Shower activity
from the associated warm front has been extremely limited across
the eastern Interior and mostly limited to the Yukon Territory
north and east of Dawson City. The NAM has done the best job of
depicting this with the ECMWF and GFS showing more extensive
precipitation across the SE Interior that isn`t verifying. An
upper level low over the lower Kobuk Valley is bringing isolated
showers from Galena to the SW Brooks Range. Building high pressure
in the Arctic has a NE surface gradient draped across the
Interior. As the high builds and the gradient tightens along the
Arctic Coast overnight tonight into Friday, easterly winds will
increase to 20 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 to 40 mph. This will
continue through Sunday bringing periods of blowing snow and
reduced visibility. Have issued a Special Weather Statement for
this. Expect visibility to remain above 1/2 mile and blizzard
conditions are not expected due to the variable condition of the
snowpack on the North Slope and lack of new snow.

Out west, a warm front will progress northward Friday through
Sunday, bringing rain and snow showers west of a line from McGrath
to Galena to Ambler. Models have come into much better agreement
on the placement and timing of precipitation with the warm front
taking the faster ECMWF solution and more easterly GFS and ECMWF
solutions. The NAM as well as high resolution models now agree
with the ECMWF and GFS. Have adjusted the PoPs and QPF
accordingly. Impacts are expected to be very limited with this
system. Southerly flow looks more likely through Alaska Range
passes over the weekend, so have added gap winds to the forecast
mainly from Donnelly Dome to Delta Junction. Wind speeds look to
be sub-Advisory level.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Broad troughing will persist over
Alaska through next week with periods of weak southerly flow and
weak ridging over the eastern Interior. The storm track will
continue to bring low pressure systems across the Aleutians, into
Bristol Bay and into the Gulf of Alaska. This will bring
continued quiet weather to most of northern Alaska with
temperatures near seasonal norms. Showers across the Interior will
be limited with most precipitation along the west coast and in
the southwest Interior, though amounts there look to be light as
well. Tuesday looks to be the day with the most shower activity
across the Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-817-851-854-857-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
&&

$$

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